A good friend of mine emailed me the other day on this ICC and ‘Ocampo six’ issue….“Ocampo may insist that he is not being manipulated by outside powers. But when you consider everything to do with the last two elections which were euphoria-driven, I can’t help feeling that the Ocampo Six is all part of a Western conspiracy to generate pro-Kanu excitement (euphoria) to propel the former ruling party back to power next year !.Uhuru Kenyatta is being recast in his father’s “heroic” role when he went to detention at the outbreak of the Mau Mau Uprising. The Hague will not break UK or Ruto. It will turn them into folk heroes ! And Ranneberger(US ambassador to Kenya) could be the architect…….”.
In my opinion I doubt the West has anything to do with the Ocampo six, more so the KANU orphans. Probably the west would lean towards Raila Odinga(Kenyas’ PM), due to his utterances and actions. Why would they want to propel the KANU orphans to power? Unless factored the conspiracy theorists who casted Raila as a communist and one with a soft spot for hardline Muslims, I fail to see his ground for the rest of his treatise.
I however think he was right on UK, Ruto and Hague and it’s impact on the electoral process. I only fault his position on the “blaming” the West or Ocampo for the rise and rise of Uhuru and Ruto. If the West and Ocampo moves led to their rise, then it was not intentional. The credit must never go to Ocampo or the West but to the two. They (and their supporters) have cleverly exploited their predicament to move the political tsunami to their side. I think the master planner in this game is one William Ruto. See how he turned the Mau crisis to his advantage and used to discredit and “finish Raila and then the Hague issue was used to turn Kalenjin land away from Tinga and towards Ruto. Then came UK and his sidekick, William Ruto, two hitherto natural enemies, thanks to PEV and now united around PEV. Their predicament has been exploited to the maximum, used to sideline Raila. They know very well that Raila has nothing to do with their flight to Hague but again the voters use their emotions to reason and now Raila is being blamed for their predicament. I think Raila has made very sound decision and stand on these national issues but this does not translate to sound political decisions. I don’t know how he stands to gain from his sound position and decision (politically).
There are very very few people who think Raila will be able to go very far without the Kalenjin block of voters. This would have worked if he got in it’s place another sizeable block. Unfortunately, it seems like he has an uphill task and it seems like these boys want to get him on his knees and to a political grave. Whether that works in 2012 is another story but most of us agree that Ruto is one man Raila should have worked hard to keep in his boma. Whether we love or hate him, he is one person we should not ignore or underrate. Ask Moi about that. Raila is next.
Contrary to what most of us think, keeping Ruto and Uhuru in jail at the Hague will work against Raila and those opposed to them. They will remain more united if the case drags on and they don’t have to be on the ballot to cause a tsunami. Actually they need to be on the ballot to “help Raila”. Keeping them out of the ballot makes it easier for them to front a third force or a third horse. If that horse happens to come from the same area raila is banking on, Western, then he (Raila) will get the votes from the same areas in got in 1997. But 2012 is rather too far in politics.
I will tell this to the ODM for free: anybody who underestimates the anti-ODM flames being fanned across the country by Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto is in dreamland
econke 